By Josh Chang
In the United States, the people do not elect the president directly. Instead, the presidential contest is a composite of 51 mini-elections—one in each state and the District of Columbia— in which the winner takes all. Because of the differences in states’ electorates, that means some states have a far greater influence on who the next president will be.
There are a few terms that get tossed around a lot when talking about states in the electoral college, and it may be useful to first clarify what they all mean. “Swing” states are those that have switched parties in recent elections, which are often important, but not always. You’ve also probably heard words like “safe”, “lean”, or “tossup” before, which are examples of election ratings. Ratings serve only to communicate how close or uncertain the race in a particular state is, but again, not necessarily how important.
You may have also come across talk of possible “tipping point” states, which is a much more useful measure. If all the states were to uniformly shift toward the candidate who is losing, the tipping point would be the first state to cause the winner to switch. Basically the tipping point is the state most likely to decide the winner of the election. This doesn’t always mean the closest state, especially in elections that are not particularly close, but it does necessarily mean the most important state.
So which states matter this time around? Here’s a list.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is likely the most important state in the 2020 election. Its 20 electoral votes and strong alignment with the national environment make this state the most likely tipping point right now. Both candidates need this state to win. In my 2020 election model, Joe Biden currently has more than a three in four chance of winning the state, an indication of his solid position in this election overall.
Florida
The perpetual swing state of Florida is probably tied with Wisconsin for the second most important state in the 2020 election. Florida has 29 electoral votes and is a bit closer than other important states, so President Trump needs the state if he is to have any shot at victory. While Biden could possibly win without it, his campaign clearly would like to solidify a win early in the fast-reporting state. Joe Biden currently has a two in three chance of winning Florida in my model.
Wisconsin
Very similar to Pennsylvania politically, Wisconsin would be more (if not the most) important if it had more than 10 electoral votes. It is still an essential state though, especially for Trump. My model gives Biden a little less than a four in five shot in the state right now.
Michigan
Michigan is probably the fourth most important state in 2020. It is a similar to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but Michigan is the most Democratic of the three states. With 16 electoral votes, Biden has to win here. He currently has a five in six chance of doing so according to my model.
North Carolina
Back in the South, North Carolina is a lot like Florida in terms of this election, if not a little redder. Trump has to hold on to the 15 electoral votes here if he plans on winning, but Biden is probably still the favorite even if he loses the state. For this reason, North Carolina is probably the fifth most important state. Biden has slightly less than a two in three chance of winning the state in my model.
Other notable states
Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, and Georgia count as honorable mentions among the most essential states in this presidential election. While each of these states do matter, they either don’t have that many electoral votes or are not as representative of the national environment. This makes them a bit less likely to be the tipping point. Regardless, both campaigns are campaigning hard in these states as back-up in case things go awry elsewhere.
Close but unimportant states
There are a few states that are quite close but are not all that important because Biden does not need them at all to win. These include Iowa, Ohio, and notably Texas. Although essentially tossups per my model, a Biden win in any of these states would act more as a cherry on top for the candidate than actually helpful in clinching the presidency.
Presentation created by Michael Sollecito in Dr. W’s current events class.
