By Josh Chang
With approximately 96% of the vote counted, the Associated Press has called the state of Florida for President Donald Trump. The call, which was made shortly after 12:30 am, represents a significant blow to Joe Biden. The Biden campaign was hoping to win the Sunshine State and its 29 electoral college votes, a notion that polling had consistently supported. My model now gives the President a 26% chance of re-election, somewhat better than his odds going into tonight, although Biden is still the slight favorite.
The race now likely comes down the Midwest, especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Biden is still slightly favored to win all three states, but it may take some time to know the full results; officials in Pennsylvania, the closest and most important of the group, have said it may take until Friday to fully report.
There are still a few other possible opportunities for Biden to ensure victory without Pennsylvania. The clearest path is probably through Nevada and Arizona; the Former Vice President has been polling strongly in these two states this cycle, and polling there has historically been fairly accurate. Fox News has already called Arizona for Biden. These states combined provide enough electoral votes for Biden to win, provided he holds on to Wisconsin and Michigan.
