By Josh Chang
With the 2020 election just two days away, many are asking when we will know who won. A common theory circulating is that it could take days or even weeks to name a victor, and although possible, that is not the most likely scenario.
The idea that it could take longer than usual to count all the ballots is rooted in reality. A number of states in the Midwest, some of the most crucial in deciding the winner of the electoral college, don’t plan on processing mail-in ballots until the morning of election day. Pennsylvania, the most important state in this election, doesn’t expect to have all their votes counted until Friday, since they will accept mail-in ballots that were postmarked by election day but received up to three days later. If it does come down to the Keystone State, we may not know for a few days.
But it probably won’t come down to Pennsylvania. Specifically, Biden is currently favored to win Florida according to most models, including my own. If Biden wins Florida, the election is over for Trump; he has no path without its 29 electoral votes. And, luckily for those watching, Florida is quite likely to report results quickly. The state has a history of dealing with lots of mail-in ballots and has been processing them for weeks.
Florida plans to dump the results of most early in-person and mail-in voting within 30 minutes of polls closing, and since it does not accept mail-in ballots received after election day, this should represent a majority of all votes cast. With less normal election day votes to count, the results should be close to complete by midnight.
In 2016, Florida came down to a margin of just 1.2% between Trump and Clinton. Nevertheless, the Associated Press was able to call Florida at 10:50 p.m. because the state was already nearly done counting. There is no reason to think it will take much longer this year, unless it is extraordinarily close.
There are also a few other somewhat fast-counting states that, if won by Biden, would all but eliminate Trump’s path. Namely, if Biden carries North Carolina, Georgia, or Texas — all virtually tied in the polls right now — it would be next to impossible for Trump to win. This adds to the probability of knowing who won on election night or early the next morning.
Fundamentally, the question of what time the victor will become clear comes down to how close the election is. The most likely scenario is not a tight election, which means we will probably learn the winner early on. But there is some chance the election is closer — maybe around one in four. Nearly all scenarios where Trump wins are remarkably close, and Biden could win by a smaller margin than expected. That would cause the election to rely on the Midwest and perhaps keep us waiting a few extra days.
One final thing to note is the difference between knowing who won and the election being called. Theoretically, we could know the winner on election night but have to wait a few days for the networks to call the race for a candidate. That’s because the networks will not officially name the President-elect until they have individually called states adding up to more than half of the electoral votes. If we are waiting on mail-in ballots to be counted in numerous states, even if it is clear that Biden will win based on results in Florida or other states, the networks may hesitate.
As a resource on election night, I will be updating my model as states are called by the Associated Press. That should help to keep you updated on how winning or losing different states affects your candidate’s chances in real-time. In the case that the networks haven’t called the election at-large, but it is evident who will win, this tool will make that clear.
